The word ‘ceasefire’ has become, as all things eventually do, somewhat of a political emblem. What is needed is a permanent cessation of orchestrated killing. Otherwise, 30k+ people died for nothing. That being said, a 15 minute ceasefire is 15 minutes that Palestinian kids don’t have to fear death from above and IDF soldiers aren’t running for their lives from ghosts. It’s not happening because, as I’ve said from the start, this is about power, not peace or principles, for all decisionmakers.
The only way to conclude this conflict is for the world to say ‘no’ to Israel’s far-right government, to tell them ‘you will not be allowed to ethnically cleanse Palestine.’ And for the world to tell Hamas ‘yes,’ you will face consequences for October 7th. This will likely need to be achieved by third-party force of arms as a collective police action. No one likes it but that is the answer. And Israel, not America, Europe, nor the Arab world, should pay to rebuild Gaza. Or it will happen again.
Without consequences, without boundaries that are firm, universal, unimpeachable, and not selectively applied, there is nothing to prevent this from happening in the future, and what is not actively prevented will eventually occur. What people can do, they will do. And if you are not going to set the correct precedent within the context of this conflict, there is no point in even talking about it with regard to Russia / Ukraine.
Either rules exist within an international context or they do not. Justice is not blind but she is omnipresent, or she doesn’t exist at all, she is a lie, and this is, as it appears to be, simply a transnational gentleman’s agreement to impose control and facilitate the continued existence and hegemony of familiar blocs of political and economic authority. If power continues to repeat the dubious assumptions and mistakes of the past, it will see the same results, and bring only ruin.